Giants-Diamondbacks Series Preview – May 2025

The San Francisco Giants haven’t won a season series against the Arizona Diamondbacks since taking 17 of 19 in 2021.

Okay, with that out of the way, let’s examine the state of the Giants as they face off against one of their competitors for a Wild Card spot this season: they’re fine. Not great, not terrible. Somewhere in that fine to good range. They’re sort of off to the start that was expected of the Diamondbacks while the Diamondbacks got off to the start that was basically the Best Case Scenario by even the most optimistic of Giants fans.

Consider that through each team’s first 15 games, Arizona went 8-7 and the Giants 11-4. If the Giants had gotten off to an 8-7 start, I think we’d all be just as impressed by Buster Posey’s first year as President of Baseball Operations, still bullish about the team’s chances because of the pitching, and still fretting about the offense. Really, it’s the Diamondbacks that are the surprise here, because that’s the start they got off to and that’s the team they still basically are.

Since the 15-game mark, both teams are .500. Again: about what we expected of the Giants before the season but a surprise for the Diamondbacks. You look at these records though and it’s very obvious what’s going on here:

Diamondbacks (since 8-7 start): 13-13, 4.65 ERA, 129 RS, team OPS: .756
Giants (since 11-4 start): 13-13, 3.55 ERA, 116 RS, team OPS: .676

Hmm… so, what the numbers are saying is that the Giants can pitch but can’t hit and that the Diamondbacks can hit but not pitch? You don’t say! I never would’ve guessed that before the season, during the season, and as I sat down to compose this preview.

It should come as no surprise that Corbin Carroll is back to terrorizing the league as he did two seasons ago. He got off to a dreadful start in 2024, but post-All-Star break he was elite: .258/.351/.568 in 280 PA. He has 11 home runs and 5 triples already this season while sporting a .920 OPS through 190 plate appearances. Hoped-for offseason trade target Josh Naylor isn’t a dinger machine, but he’s got a healthy .440 slugging percentage in his first 172 plate appearances with Arizona to go along with a .293 average and .368 OBP. Ketel Marte is, as has been the case with his career, elite when healthy (.935 OPS in 2025), but he’s already had an IL stint this season. He’ll be in this series to start, and just the three of these guys would be a problem for any good pitching staff to handle, only… these aren’t the only good hitters on the Dbacks.

Their third baseman Eugenio Suarez had a 4-home run game, Alek Thomas is like Corbin Carroll Jr., and 29-year old Pavin Smith is finally getting a full-time gig and letting his hit tool flourish (.313/.447/.535 in 123 PA).

They’re not the Cubs — not quite — but they’re a really tough group, and as a division rival, that extra 2% of familiarity and bitterness makes them just as potent as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker & co.

Of course, the Giants took two out of three from those guys and have the homefield advantage this week against these guys, and — most importantly — as bad as the Giants’ lineup is, Arizona’s pitching might be enough of an equalizer. Their big offseason acquisition, Corbin Burnes, has been pretty good, but his 2.95 ERA is betrayed by a 4.68 FIP and just 8 days ago his start was scratched due to shoulder inflammation. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen is far off his Cy Young vote-getting form of 2023 with a high walk rate and home run rate and a FIP approaching 4 (3.94). Eduardo Rodriguez has been one of the worst starters in the game to this point while Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt have basically been their average quality guys. Their bullpen is thin due to two big injuries: A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez. To put this in perspective, it’d be like the Giants losing Camilo Doval and Ryan Walker.

Arizona hasn’t won two in a row since April 20th and 22nd, when they won the finale in Chicago against the Cubs and game one of a 3-game home series against the Rays. They’re 11-12 at home (-4 run diff.) and 10-8 on the road (+2).

The Giants are looking to get back on track after being embarrassed by the Twins in a 3-game sweep. They also have to show that they can win games against division rivals that aren’t the Rockies, since they were also swept by the Padres. Going .500 on the road and winning series at home is the formula for all successful teams. The Giants have demonstrated resilience throughout the first 6-7 weeks of the season, so I don’t think there’s any real cause for concern — unless they get swept again.

Series overview

Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: FS1 (Monday), MLB Network (simulcast — Tues & Weds)

Projected starters

Monday: Merrill Kelly (RHP 3-2, 4.09 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP 0-2, 4.50 ERA)
Tuesday: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP 6-2, 3.28 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 5-0, 2.84 ERA)
Wednesday: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP 1-3, 6.86 ERA) vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP 1-4, 5.82 ERA)

Where they stand

Diamondbacks, 21-20 (4th in NL West), 206 RS / 208 RA | Last 10: 4-6
Giants, 24-17 (3rd in NL West), 191 RS / 156 RA | Last 10: 5-5

Dbacks to watch

You know, besides all those names mentioned above…

Jordan Lawler: Arizona’s top prospect is set to make his MLB debut in this series. The infielder could spell Eugenio Suarez at third, Geraldo Perdomo at short, or even DH.

Shelby Miller: I remember that brief, shining moment when he popped up as an elite reliever for the Giants at the end of 2022. Since then, he’s got a 2.99 ERA in 114.1 IP with a 2.5 rWAR for three teams (Dodgers, Tigers, and now Arizona). He’s very much elite, striking out 19 of the 66 batters he’s faced so far while walking only 5.

Randal Grichuk: The Giants had some interest in him this offseason and now he’s in a backup role with Arizona. He’s a career .290/.329/.536 at Oracle Park (73 PA).

Giants to watch

Justin Verlander / Robbie Ray / Jordan Hicks: Each starter has a running storyline we get to check in on in this series. With Verlander, it’s that elusive first pitching win for the Giants. He’s been much better his last 4 starts: 2.70 ERA (4.14 FIP) in 23.1 IP with a .193 batting average against. Will he pitch the Giants into having a lead late? If so, will Ryan Walker get the call again to preserve a potential win?

Meanwhile, the Giants haven’t lost a Robbie Ray start yet. YET. YET-YET-YET. It’s bound to happen. Why not this week? While it’s true that the heavy left-handed lineup of Arizona (6 in the starting lineup counting the 2 switch-hitters) is much better against right-handed pitching, their team wRC+ of 96 is 14th in MLB. That’s mainly because they walk a lot against lefties. Their 9.9% team walk rate is 8th in MLB. Ray’s 4.67 BB/9 is the 2nd-worst in MLB among qualified starting pitchers, trailing only Seattle’s Bryce Miller (4.76) — which makes him the worst pitcher in terms of walks in the National League.

Finally, Jordan Hicks has walked just 2 batters in his last 16 IP (3 starts) compared to 16 strikeouts. He has been really good over this stretch (4.50 ERA, sure, but a 1.68 FIP) and that’s on a .370 BAbip, which means MLB hitters have gotten a little lucky off him. Then again, the Diamondbacks’ bats are so good that all that contact creates its own luck.

Wilmer Flores: He was a great Diamondback in 2019 (.317/.361/.487) but he’s also been a bit of a menace to them. In 87 career games, he’s slashed .250/.315/.467 with 12 home runs. The OPS and HR totals are near the top of his career list against opposing teams. The last two seasons combined (13 games, 48 PA) he’s 11-for-38 with a pair of homers, 8 walks, and 5 strikeouts. He ended April 1-for-19 which dropped his season line down to .229/.282/.422, but he’s picked things back up a bit to start May: .290/.353/.355 in 34 PA.

Patrick Bailey: Look, he’s done everything he can to signal to fans that he’s not a major league hitter and might even get worse (since the second half of last season: 48-for-276), but whenever he’s on the same field as Gabriel Moreno, it’s newsworthy. For a brief moment in time, these two were competitors. It appears that injuries have drained Moreno of his talent, too, and so now we’re looking at two elite defensive catchers who are struggling to find their way against major league pitching. I don’t think we’re going to see Patrick Bailey bust out of a slump at this point. I think this is basically what he is. Still, he’s probably due for a hit in this series. Let’s hope it’s a meaningful one!

Prediction time